Search the Scene... and find a pattern?

[ladyislay]

Has anyone ever wondered how truly random the "Search the Scene" mini-game really is?

I'm a bit obsessive, so I decided to investigate.

Based on some very preliminary numbers (734 searches), I have discovered that items found during the "Search the Scene" mini game are not entirely random: different items can be found on different trails. For example, Squirrel Stew can be found on the way to Platte River, Buffalo Jerky on the way to Chimney Rock, Bandit Bandanas on the trail from Flagstaff Hill to Blue Mountains, and medicinal items (Medicine Bag, Herbal Tea, Herbal Poultice, Snakeweed and Herbal Remedy) on the way to Fort Bridger. From Blue Mountain to Fort Boise, you have a pretty good chance of finding Spicy Chili (though these can be found in other areas, too).

I haven't done enough searching on every trail to identify what the 'special' items on each trail are.

Is anyone interested in helping me collect some more data? I need a spreadsheet of item found, the trail it was found on and what level you're at (as I suspect that finding certain items might be related to your level).

Some interesting preliminary results based on all my searches indicates that "Nothing" comes about 48% of the time, Rock 9%, Saguaro Fruit or Prickly Pear 10%, a cashable item (Arrowheads, Beads and Eagle Feathers) 15%, and food items (Dried Fruit or Eggs) about 6%.

[brandanj]

I would love to see any data you come out with, if you get a good amount I can run some statistical hypothesis testing at it and see if we can't clump some trails into categories or not. Gonna need a lot of data to get good results on that, though.

I have put thought into possibly trying to test this kind of information, and there is one thing I have to note here - to actually do this test we must assume that level has absolutely nothing to do with search chances. The reason is that in early levels you level too quickly to get enough data (you will out level any level based search requirements, if they exist, before you can search enough times to have meaningful data).

Besides that point, I can pretty confidently say there is no difference in level requirements for anything in the game beyond level 50. Based on the old Lv 51 + problem (you didn't get max stamina and max energy when leveling up at 51 +), the max experience to next level cap in that same level range, and now the problem with the wagon glitch affecting exactly those at level 50 +, I can confidently hypothesize that the developers hand tailored levels 1 - 49 for item unlocks and then just let lv 50+ roll through as +1 Sta / +1 Eng per level until your level is too high for how every many bits their level variables are coded to haha.

[boomdawg]

I've been keeping track of searches in various sections. I'll give yall my info when I finish this bunch.

[ladyislay]

The most recent update has probably changed the percentages, so the old data may now be useless. It is also more costly to do these checks, as they (correctly, IMO) rebalanced the Spyglass and Survivalist Suit as well as the Prickly Pear and Saguaro Fruit.

Even more frustratingly, though, is that since most of us of higher levels can't even move, we can't really collect any data at all, except perhaps for the trail we're currently on.

I've decided to cut my losses ($9, before I realised that you could get strangers to unlock things for you and that you received trail notes at the end of each trip) and uninstall the ap. It is way, way too beta for me.

[Tuesday]

i have just compiled a list of my searches in my latest trip, along with trails taken, and miles on the trail i searched. text follows:

wagon parts:
highland oxen (coins)
hickory stagecoach (notes)
cargo canvas (coins)
level 45

starting in march
independence MO -> shawnee mission
40mi search = nothing
30mi search = nothing
shawnee mission - > KC River Crossing
34mi wagon = cotton
30mi search = beads
19mi search = nothing
KC River crossing -> grenada station
60 mi search = arrowhead
48mi search = nothing
39mi search = buffalo jerky
30mi search = prickly pear
20mi search = dried fruit
10mi search = rock
grenada -> alcove spring
60mi search = nothing
49mi search = nothing
40mi search = spicy chili
30mi search = nothing
20mi search = beads
9mi search = nothing
alcove spring -> blue river
29 mi search = nothing
19mi search = saguaro fruit
10mi search = nothing
blue river -> rock creek station (trail)
25mi search = nothing
15mi search = squirrel stew
5mi search = nothing
rock creek station -> ft Kearny
70mi search = dried fruit
60mi search = rock
50mi search = rock
40mi search = nothing
30mi search = nothing
20mi search = nothing
10mi search = rock
ft kearny -> platte river crossing
150mi search = nothing
138 mi search = spicy chili
129mi search = squirrel stew
120mi search = nothing
110mi search = nothing
101mi search = rock
90mi search = nothing
80mi search = nothing
80mi wagon = cod liver oil
70mi search = saguaro fruit
60mi search = nothing
50mi search = nothing
40mi search = rock
30mi search = arrowhead
20mi search = nothing
10mi search = nothing
platte -> chimney rock
80mi search = nothing
70mi search = prickly pear
60mi search = spicy chili
60mi wagon = tea
50mi search = nothing
40mi search = prickly pear
30mi search = nothing
20mi search = buffalo jerky
10mi search = beads
chimney rock -> courthouse rock
70mi search = nothing
60mi search = nothing
50mi search = arrowhead
40mi search = nothing
30mi search = dried fruit
20mi search = nothing
10mi search = prickly pears
courthouse -> chimney
70mi search = saguaro fruit
60mi search = beads
50mi search = dried fruit
40mi search = nothing
30mi search = rock
20mi search = prickly pears
10mi search = nothing
chimney rock -> scotts bluff
30mi wagon = nothing
20mi search = nothing
10mi search = buffalo jerky
scotts bluff -> Ft Laramie
50mi search = nothing
40mi search = nothing
30mi search = nothing
20mi search = buffalo jerky
10mi search = rock
ft laramie -> ft caspar
100mi search = nothing
90mi search = nothing
79mi search = nothing
70mi search = herbal tea
60mi search = beads
50mi search = nothing
40mi search = medicine bag
30mi search = buffalo jerky
20mi search = medicine bag
9mi search = herbal tea
ft caspar -> independence rock
60mi search = nothing
50mi search = medicine bag
40mi search = herbal poultice
30mi search = beads
20mi search = dried fruit
9mi search = nothing
independence rock -> devils gate
10mi search = nothing
5mi search = nothing
devils gate -> independence rock
10mi search = arrowhead
5mi search = nothing
sweetwater river -> south pass
south pass -> parting of ways
9mi search = nothing
parting of ways -> soda springs
150mi search = nothing
140mi search = rock
130mi search = beads
120mi search = spicy chili
110mi search = medicine bag
100mi search = rock
90mi search = nothing
80mi search = nothing
70mi search = nothing
60mi search = rock
50mi search = snakeweed
40mi search = buffalo jerky
30mi search = buffalo jerky
20mi search = rock
10mi search = beads
soda springs -> fort hall
50mi search = nothing
39mi search = nothing
29mi search = nothing
20mi search = rock
10mi search = nothing
snake river -> shoshone falls
shoshone falls -> salmon falls
19mi search = beads
10mi search = nothing
salmon falls -> 3 island crossing
50mi search = nothing
40mi search = nothing
30mi search = herbal remedy
20mi search = nothing
10mi search = nothing
3 island crossing -> fort boise (south bank)
120mi search = eagle feathers
110mi search = beads
100mi search = beads
90mi search = arrowhead
80mi search = dried fruit
70mi search = eggs
60mi search = nothing
50mi search = rock
40mi search = rock
30mi search = nothing
20mi search = arrowhead
10mi search = nothing
ft boise -> blue mountains
100mi search = nothing
90mi search = nothing
80mi search = arrowhead
70mi search = prickly pear
60mi search = nothing
55mi wagon = nothing
50mi search = nothing
40mi search = nothing
30mi search = nothing
20mi search = dried fruit
10mi search = rock
blue mountains -> flagstaff hill
40mi search = nothing
30mi search = nothing
20mi search = prickly pears
10mi search = eagle feathers
-> blue mountains
39mi search = rock
30mi search = beads
20mi search = turquoise
10mi search = nothing
blue mountains -> whitman mission
80mi search = prickly pears
70mi search = rock
58mi wagon = wool
58mi search = arrowhead
50mi search = nothing
40mi search = beads
30mi search = nothing
20mi search = nothing
10mi search = nothing
whitman mission -> the dalles
80mi search = nothing
70mi search = herbal tea
59mi search = nothing
50mi search = nothing
39mi search = nothing
30mi search = nothing
20mi search = nothing
10mi search = nothing
dalles -> oregon city (trail, not river)
90mi search = nothing
80mi search = nothing
70mi search = nothing
60mi search = nothing
50mi search = nothing
40mi search = nothing
30mi search = medicine bag
20mi search = nothing
10mi search = medicine bag

[johnchapman]

The problem is that multiple searches at the same location give completely different results. You might find nothing, nothing,nothing, Spicy chili at a location. Doing just one search 40 miles from Flagstaff hill won't tell you much

Not only that but I get different results at different stages of play. For instance I got VERY good results on the southern (12 friend unlock) section of the Grand Canyon route. Weeks later I would find nothing. What you find at a location appears to change.

(Author of John Sherrif's guide to TOT)